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- Fall crop estimates revised
down 1% and stocks off 2%
The USDA’s revision downward of the fall potato crop should be good news for potato prices.
“This report clearly indicates a shortage of potatoes in the market,” said Potato Growers of Idaho (PGI) Executive Director Mike Duff. “We believe this will equate to significantly higher potato prices over the remainder of the marketing year. Growers are likely to be extremely cautious about accepting any offers for open market potatoes.”
The annual Dec. 1 USDA Potato Stocks on Hand Report is an industry marker that typically sets the tone for the potato marketing season, Duff said. And this year, the report gives strong indications that potato demand is likely to outpace supply between now and the fall of 2000.
In December the government revised its estimate of the fall potato crop down 1.4% to 429 million cwt. The new estimate is a 6.1 million cwt. reduction from USDA’s November production estimate. It is only the ninth time in 31 years that the USDA has lowered its December estimate of the fall potato crop. The new estimate means the crop is down 1% from a year ago but 1% above 1997.
Storage stocks on Dec. 1 were 275 million cwt., down 2% from last year and 1% below 1997. Seasonal disappearance of 146 million cwt. is up 2% from last year. Fryers and dehydrators used 74.6 million cwt. so far this season, up 1% from last year.
The biggest production cuts came as the result of lower estimates of harvested acres. USDA says that Idaho growers planted 5,000 acres less than originally thought.
Growers in the Red River Valley lost considerably more acreage to harvest problems than USDA indicated in the November production report. The estimate of harvested area fell by 7,000 acres in Minnesota and by 2,000 acres in North Dakota.
Other major changes included 10 cwt. per acre yield reductions for both Colorado and Wisconsin. Michigan’s production forecast was bumped up to 14.9 million cwt. as the result of a five cwt. per acre increase in estimated yields.
Stocks down
Potato stocks were 275 million cwt. of potatoes on Dec. 1, 1999, down 2% from last year and 1% below 1997.
Storage accounted for 65% of 1999 fall production, 1% below last year. Stocks by type were 2% red, 12% round white, 5% long white (Shepody) and 81% russet; with fewer russets, and more round whites than a year ago.
Disappearance from the start of harvest to Dec. 1, at 146 million cwt. of potatoes, was up 2% from the same period last year and 8% more than two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 17.2 million cwt. so far this year, was down 13% from losses in 1998, but up 12% from two years ago.
Processors used 74.6 million cwt. of 1999 crop potatoes through Dec. 1, up 1% from a year ago and 9% above two years ago.
Eastern states stored 19.8 million cwt. of potatoes on Dec. 1, up 2% from last year but 7% below 1997. Maine’s stocks were up 3%, New York’s storage gained 9%, but Pennsylvania’s stocks declined 20%.
Central states accounted for 62.4 million cwt. of potato stocks this December, down 8% from last year and 1% lower than two years ago.
Minnesota’s stocks dropped 26% and North Dakota fell 20% from last year. Michigan was off 3% and Ohio slipped 4%. Wisconsin gained 8% while Nebraska stored 13% more potatoes than last year.
Western states held 193 million cwt. of potatoes in storage on Dec.1, fractionally below a year ago and 1% below two years ago. California and Oregon stored 14% more potatoes this year than last. Colorado gained 3% and Montana increased 6%. Idaho’s stocks fell 4% and Washington’s were off 2%.
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